NFL Predictions

Here are my predictions for the big NFL games this weekend:

Cincinatti over Atlanta:  Cincinatti is coming off of a big win last weekend over Carolina.  Palmer is starting to look a lot more like the MVP candidate he was last season.  Vick looked great last week, but you never know what you’re going to get with him.  I’m giving this one to the home team.

Kansas City over Seattle:  No Shaun Alexander.  No Matt Hasselbeck.  This is a shell of the team that won the NFC last season.  Kansas City can score, and I just don’t see Seneca Wallace winning a shootout.

 Baltimore over New Orleans:  New Orleans has been playing great football recently, and has been unbeatable at home.  Baltimore has cooled off in the past couple weeks after a great start.  I think this is a game that Baltimore needs to win, however, and I think their defense is going to come up big.  I think the Saints are due for a bad game.

 New York Giants over Tampa Bay: Tampa is a very good 2-4 team, coming off two straight wins over playoff contenders.  The Giants are coming off an emotional division win, and this could be a letdown game.  I could see it being close, but the G-Men are going to put up points and I just can’t see this Tampa offense matching scores with Eli and the Giants.

Philadelphia over Jacksonville:  This Jaguars team is clearly a pretender.  Last weeks blowout loss to the lowly Texans proved that.  The Jaguars cannot win on the road, having lost also to the Redskins.  The Eagles, after back to back heartbreaking losses, are going to play with everything they have.  I see this one being a blowout.

San Diego over St. Louis:  San Diego is hard to figure out.  They look like the best team in the league, then they lose a very winnable game.  I’m starting to think it’s last season all over again.  However, they still have the capability to beat a good team, and coming off that loss I see them putting up big points on this Rams team.

Indy over Denver:  I know the saying.  A good defense beats a good offense.  The thing is, in the regular season at least, it is impossible to completely shut down Peyton Manning and this Colts attack.  The win you have to be able to match scores with him for at least part of this game, and this Denver team just doesn’t score enough to do that.  While Bell has been great, do you really trust Jake Plummer in a key fourth quarter drive?

Carolina over Dallas:  Dallas needs this game badly.  Falling to 3-4 with a tough schedule could likely spell doom for Parcels’ team.  However, I did not see enough from Romo last week to tell me he’s ready to handle this tough Panthers defense.  I also don’t think the Boys have an answer for Steve Smith.

Minnesota over New England:  New England is 5-1, but has had a soft schedule.  Minnesota is coming off a convincing win, and will be ready for the chance to prove themselves on Monday night at home.  Again, I give this one to the hungrier team.

Who should go? Torre or Arod?

            After another disappointing early exit from the postseason, the Yankees are faced with two big decisions to make.  The first is whether to fire manager Joe Torre, and the second is whether to trade third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who has struggled the past two postseasons.  The Yankees have decided to keep Torre, and say they’ll keep A-Rod, although there will be a lot of pressure on Cashman to trade him.

            Torre is everything that defines the Yankee tradition of winning.  He managed the Yankees when they won the World Series four times in five years.  He is confident, professional, knows how to win and is loved in
New York.  What Joe Torre is to
New York, Alex Rodriguez is the opposite.  Despite being the most talented player in baseball, he has failed time and time again in the clutch and clearly lacks confidence in himself.  He has never won a World Series and Yankee fans have booed him mercilessly all season.  This year, he was even booed once the day after hitting a walk off two run home run.  It appears that after three years, he may have worn out his welcome in the Big Apple.  This spring, however, is should be A-Rod and not Torre that is still wearing pinstripes.

            For all the things Torre has done right in his brilliant career, the A-Rod situation is one he handled badly.  What makes a manager great is how he handles players like Rodriguez.  Anyone could manage a roster full of Derek Jeters.  Nothing is going to affect their concentration or confidence.  All you have to do is put their name on the lineup card every day.  Managing a player like A-Rod is a lot harder.  A-Rod is tremendously talented, but can let the situation he is in affect him.  He has a fragile psyche and tries too hard to please people.  That is where a good manager should come in.  A manager should make sure such a player has the full support of the clubhouse and put him in the ideal situation to succeed.

            Joe Torre never did this for Alex Rodriguez.  When A-Rod struggled, he never found support in the Yankees clubhouse.  Despite putting up strong numbers, A-Rod received boos from his own fans, and the Yankees did not stand up for him.  Yankee Captain Derek Jeter, who defended first baseman Jason Giambi after he admitted to using steroids, refused to put aside past issues for the good of the team.

“My job as a player is not to tell the fans what to do,” Jeter told Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci.  “My job is not to tell the media what to write about.”

 Jeter is clearly still angry at Rodriguez for comments A-Rod made about Jeter to Playboy magazine.  However, it is hard for me to believe that if Torre sat down with the Yankee captain and said to him “If you care about winning, you’ll tell the fans to lay off A-Rod because booing him is hurting his chances of succeeding and therefore the teams,” that Jeter would refuse.  If he would, perhaps he doesn’t deserve to be the captain. 

It is a manager’s job to manage the clubhouse and give the players the best chance to succeed, and Torre has not done that.  Perhaps his biggest blunder in handling A-Rod, however, came in the playoffs.  Rodriguez had batted fourth or fifth in the lineup all season, and was coming off a September where he hit .358 with 8 home runs.  Torre batted him sixth, in essence saying that because it was now the playoffs, he had less faith in A-Rod.  While the move was meant to take the pressure off Rodriguez, it seemingly shattered his confidence.  Even when A-Rod was hitting as well as ever, Torre still expected his to fail in the playoffs.  It turned out to be a self fulfilling prophecy.  A-Rod struggled, and the Yankees lost in four games.

Many fans feel that this is the time to give up on Rodriguez.  His last two postseasons in
New York have been disastrous.  Many good players have not been able to play in the Big Apple, and perhaps he is just one of them.  So why keep him?

The reason, simply, is that A-Rod is so talented that you can’t give up on him.  First of all, he puts up stellar stats every year and helps them get to the postseason.  Yankee fans take the postseason for granted, but without his 40+ home runs and 120 RBIs, it is not a guarantee.  Second, it is hard to believe he is incapable of hitting in the postseason.  Maybe all he needs is that one big hit to get his confidence and break out of his playoff slump.  Fan favorite Tino Martinez struggled in the playoffs until the 1998 World series, when he hit a go ahead home run.  That was the end of his playoff struggles.  Barry Bonds was a superstar who could not hit in the playoffs, until 2002 when he hit 8 home runs and almost single handedly carried the Giants to a World Series title.  If A-Rod can get hot in October, he is capable of carrying the team, which is more than you can say for anyone you could trade him for.

If Rodriguez does get another chance in
New York, it will be under Torre.  Torre and A-Rod have not gotten along in the past, and it is up to Torre to get the most out of A-Rod this year.  Otherwise, neither of them will be wearing pinstripes in April, 2008.

NBA Playoffs

The NBA playoffs start on Saturday, and it is hard to say who is favored to win.  The Pistons have been dominant at times, and have home court throughout.  The Spurs had a great season, although Duncan was quieter than usual.  The team I see coming out of the West is the Dallas Mavericks.  The Suns could give them a run, and the Spurs will certainly be tough to dethrone, but Dirk has done what it takes this year and I think he will have a huge postseason.

In the East, the Pistons are the clear favorites.  They are experienced, have the best team chemistry, and are coming off a monster regular season.  The Heat are still a tough out, but they do not seem to be as good as last year, when they gave the Pistons a serious run without a healthy Dwayne Wade.  Maybe the offseason moves didn't work out, or maybe Shaq is just running out of gas. 

The sleeper team in the league is the New Jersey Nets.  If they were to cruise past Indiana and Miami into the conference finals against Detriot, it wouldn't surprise me.  If they were to lose in five games to the Pacers, it wouldn't surprise me.  It may come down to the play of center Nenad Krystic.

The most interesting subplot of these playoffs is the play of LeBron James.  The Cavaliers will not win the title, and will not play in the finals.  Their team just isn't good enough.  But if he could cruise by the Wizards and give the Pistons a series run, he could be on his way to solidifying his status as the games next great player.  If he can't get by Washington, it won't be long until the Tracy McGrady comparisons rear their ugly head.

I think the Pistons will be NBA Champs.  They are such a tough team, and they know how to step it up in the playoffs.  But who knows, I've been wrong before.

Early Impressions

The best team in baseball through a week and a half? The New York Metropolitans, led by David Wright, who is emerging as a true superstar.

Who the hell is Chris Shelton? In another month he’ll be hitting .260.

It’s great to see Thome having a resurgence this year. If he returns to being one of the games top sluggers, the White Sox sure will be tough this year.

I know its early, but Barry is hitting .167 with 0 HRs. Aaron must be a little bit relieved.

The Yankees need either Wang or Chacon to become a reliable starter this year. So far, it’s not looking good.

MLB Predictions II

Now, predictions for the NL:

East: Mets.  Yes, I am the asshole who every year pick against the Braves and every year looks stupid.  Why do I think this year will be different?  The Braves don't have Mazzone, a pitching guru who could make Steven Hawkins into a Cy Young contender, anymore.  The Mets, led by young star David Wright, should have a very dangerous offense.

Central: Cardinals.  Pujols is the best hitter in baseball, and the team is solid enough to hold off the Astros and Cubs, especially if Clemens does not come back.

West: Giants.  If Barry is healthy, he and 24 little leaguers can win this pathetic division.

Wild Card: Astros.  Still great pitching with Oswalt and Pettitte, even if Clemens does not come back.

MVP: Pujols.  I think Wright can be a candidate, as can Jason Bay if he can lead the Pirates into contention.  But unless Barry is healthy for the whole year, no one is going to put up the numbers Pujols will.

Cy Young: Oswalt.  Has consistantly put up big numbers since his rookie year.

MLB Predictions

With baseball season just days away, it's time for my preseason predictions.  AL is today, NL tomorow.

AL

East: Yankees.  The pitching is a question mark, but the offense could score 1000 runs.  The key is whether Johnson and Pavano could bounce back, and whether Wang and Chacon are as good as they were last year.

Central: Indians.  This young team, led by the underrated Travis Hafner, has a good chance to keep the defending World Champion White Sox out of the playoffs.  I can't see the Sox repeating last year's success.

West: Athletics.  Very talented, young, pitching staff, but questionable offense.

Wild Card:  Red Sox.  The loss of Damon might hurt a little, but any lineup with Ortiz and Manny is going to score some runs.  The pitching is a huge question mark, but Beckett has the potential to be a true ace.

MVP: David Ortiz.  He always puts up monster numbers, and if it's close they will be eager to give it to him after close misses the past two years.

 Cy Young: Roy Halladay.  He and Santana are the two best pitchers in the league, and Santana will likely not get much run support.

How could I be so stupid?

• So much for MSU and UNC being two superpowers meeting in the second round.  Both took turns fucking me in each of my brackets.  Now I’m dead in one and in serious trouble in the other.  This is the last time I take a team to go far because “they perform well in the tournament” or because they remind me of a team that did well in the past.  UNC was clearly too young and didn’t look like they belonged in the tournament at all, barely surviving in the first round before losing to George Mason in the second. I badly need Uconn to not reach the Final Four and for Villanova to at least reach the final game.
• You want to know why Cuba and Japan, who have none and one major league stars (and maybe players) respectively made it farther than teams like the US and Dominican Republic, whose roster was filled with big leaguers?  It was partially the fact that teams like Cuba were in midseason form, but in addition, while major leaguers are just preparing for the REAL season to start, players from Cuba, Japan, and Korea are using this as a chance to prove that they can play in the major league.  What better way to prove you belong in a league than beating the best it has to offer?

Major Problem with the WBC

I would say that so far the World Baseball Classic has been a huge success.  There is, however, one major flaw, and that is the tiebreaking system.  In the United States-Mexico game yesterday, Mexico scored a run in the third inning, eliminating themselves from contention for the next round.  How does that make sense?  In order to make the next round, Mexico would need to shut out the US for 13 innings, then score three runs.  There is clearly something wrong with a format where who advances comes down to complicated tiebreaking procedures.  I think there should be more WBCs in the future, but they need to find a more reasonable format. 

WBC prediction: Cuba over Korea in the final.

First Day of March Madness

The first two days of March Madness are the best two sports days of the year.  Some people say its Super Bowl Sunday, but the Super Bowl is a huge buildup to one game that a lot of times ends up sucking.  With March Madness, there are 32 games in two days, and there are always at least a handful of great games.  Today was no exception.  The BC game was a double overtime thriller.  BC really looked dead in the first overtime, but they were able to get hot when they needed to.  The GW game was a great back and forth contest, and the ending to the Tennessee/Winthrop game was classic.  While Tennessee avoided a historic upset, they did little to prove that they deserved a number two seed. 

There’s no day like Selection Sunday

• Someone from the selection committee must have read my last post and taken it too far.  Sure, George Washington was overrated as number 6 in the country, but they should have gotten a hell of a lot better than an 8-seed.
• You know what pisses me off?  When there are two teams that you are high on and feel can make a run, and they end up being seeded to play in the second round.  This year it’s Michigan State and North Carolina.  I love Michigan State in the tourney, they always make a run, but UNC has been playing very well this year and reminds me of the Orangemen team that won the title. 
• The World Baseball Classic is definately interesting and I think so far it has been a success, but good luck trying to steal viewers from March Madness.  The second half of March belongs to college basketball.