NFL Predictions

Here are my predictions for the big NFL games this weekend:

Cincinatti over Atlanta:  Cincinatti is coming off of a big win last weekend over Carolina.  Palmer is starting to look a lot more like the MVP candidate he was last season.  Vick looked great last week, but you never know what you’re going to get with him.  I’m giving this one to the home team.

Kansas City over Seattle:  No Shaun Alexander.  No Matt Hasselbeck.  This is a shell of the team that won the NFC last season.  Kansas City can score, and I just don’t see Seneca Wallace winning a shootout.

 Baltimore over New Orleans:  New Orleans has been playing great football recently, and has been unbeatable at home.  Baltimore has cooled off in the past couple weeks after a great start.  I think this is a game that Baltimore needs to win, however, and I think their defense is going to come up big.  I think the Saints are due for a bad game.

 New York Giants over Tampa Bay: Tampa is a very good 2-4 team, coming off two straight wins over playoff contenders.  The Giants are coming off an emotional division win, and this could be a letdown game.  I could see it being close, but the G-Men are going to put up points and I just can’t see this Tampa offense matching scores with Eli and the Giants.

Philadelphia over Jacksonville:  This Jaguars team is clearly a pretender.  Last weeks blowout loss to the lowly Texans proved that.  The Jaguars cannot win on the road, having lost also to the Redskins.  The Eagles, after back to back heartbreaking losses, are going to play with everything they have.  I see this one being a blowout.

San Diego over St. Louis:  San Diego is hard to figure out.  They look like the best team in the league, then they lose a very winnable game.  I’m starting to think it’s last season all over again.  However, they still have the capability to beat a good team, and coming off that loss I see them putting up big points on this Rams team.

Indy over Denver:  I know the saying.  A good defense beats a good offense.  The thing is, in the regular season at least, it is impossible to completely shut down Peyton Manning and this Colts attack.  The win you have to be able to match scores with him for at least part of this game, and this Denver team just doesn’t score enough to do that.  While Bell has been great, do you really trust Jake Plummer in a key fourth quarter drive?

Carolina over Dallas:  Dallas needs this game badly.  Falling to 3-4 with a tough schedule could likely spell doom for Parcels’ team.  However, I did not see enough from Romo last week to tell me he’s ready to handle this tough Panthers defense.  I also don’t think the Boys have an answer for Steve Smith.

Minnesota over New England:  New England is 5-1, but has had a soft schedule.  Minnesota is coming off a convincing win, and will be ready for the chance to prove themselves on Monday night at home.  Again, I give this one to the hungrier team.

Who should go? Torre or Arod?

            After another disappointing early exit from the postseason, the Yankees are faced with two big decisions to make.  The first is whether to fire manager Joe Torre, and the second is whether to trade third baseman Alex Rodriguez, who has struggled the past two postseasons.  The Yankees have decided to keep Torre, and say they’ll keep A-Rod, although there will be a lot of pressure on Cashman to trade him.

            Torre is everything that defines the Yankee tradition of winning.  He managed the Yankees when they won the World Series four times in five years.  He is confident, professional, knows how to win and is loved in
New York.  What Joe Torre is to
New York, Alex Rodriguez is the opposite.  Despite being the most talented player in baseball, he has failed time and time again in the clutch and clearly lacks confidence in himself.  He has never won a World Series and Yankee fans have booed him mercilessly all season.  This year, he was even booed once the day after hitting a walk off two run home run.  It appears that after three years, he may have worn out his welcome in the Big Apple.  This spring, however, is should be A-Rod and not Torre that is still wearing pinstripes.

            For all the things Torre has done right in his brilliant career, the A-Rod situation is one he handled badly.  What makes a manager great is how he handles players like Rodriguez.  Anyone could manage a roster full of Derek Jeters.  Nothing is going to affect their concentration or confidence.  All you have to do is put their name on the lineup card every day.  Managing a player like A-Rod is a lot harder.  A-Rod is tremendously talented, but can let the situation he is in affect him.  He has a fragile psyche and tries too hard to please people.  That is where a good manager should come in.  A manager should make sure such a player has the full support of the clubhouse and put him in the ideal situation to succeed.

            Joe Torre never did this for Alex Rodriguez.  When A-Rod struggled, he never found support in the Yankees clubhouse.  Despite putting up strong numbers, A-Rod received boos from his own fans, and the Yankees did not stand up for him.  Yankee Captain Derek Jeter, who defended first baseman Jason Giambi after he admitted to using steroids, refused to put aside past issues for the good of the team.

“My job as a player is not to tell the fans what to do,” Jeter told Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci.  “My job is not to tell the media what to write about.”

 Jeter is clearly still angry at Rodriguez for comments A-Rod made about Jeter to Playboy magazine.  However, it is hard for me to believe that if Torre sat down with the Yankee captain and said to him “If you care about winning, you’ll tell the fans to lay off A-Rod because booing him is hurting his chances of succeeding and therefore the teams,” that Jeter would refuse.  If he would, perhaps he doesn’t deserve to be the captain. 

It is a manager’s job to manage the clubhouse and give the players the best chance to succeed, and Torre has not done that.  Perhaps his biggest blunder in handling A-Rod, however, came in the playoffs.  Rodriguez had batted fourth or fifth in the lineup all season, and was coming off a September where he hit .358 with 8 home runs.  Torre batted him sixth, in essence saying that because it was now the playoffs, he had less faith in A-Rod.  While the move was meant to take the pressure off Rodriguez, it seemingly shattered his confidence.  Even when A-Rod was hitting as well as ever, Torre still expected his to fail in the playoffs.  It turned out to be a self fulfilling prophecy.  A-Rod struggled, and the Yankees lost in four games.

Many fans feel that this is the time to give up on Rodriguez.  His last two postseasons in
New York have been disastrous.  Many good players have not been able to play in the Big Apple, and perhaps he is just one of them.  So why keep him?

The reason, simply, is that A-Rod is so talented that you can’t give up on him.  First of all, he puts up stellar stats every year and helps them get to the postseason.  Yankee fans take the postseason for granted, but without his 40+ home runs and 120 RBIs, it is not a guarantee.  Second, it is hard to believe he is incapable of hitting in the postseason.  Maybe all he needs is that one big hit to get his confidence and break out of his playoff slump.  Fan favorite Tino Martinez struggled in the playoffs until the 1998 World series, when he hit a go ahead home run.  That was the end of his playoff struggles.  Barry Bonds was a superstar who could not hit in the playoffs, until 2002 when he hit 8 home runs and almost single handedly carried the Giants to a World Series title.  If A-Rod can get hot in October, he is capable of carrying the team, which is more than you can say for anyone you could trade him for.

If Rodriguez does get another chance in
New York, it will be under Torre.  Torre and A-Rod have not gotten along in the past, and it is up to Torre to get the most out of A-Rod this year.  Otherwise, neither of them will be wearing pinstripes in April, 2008.